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AFL finals: why every team can –and can’t – win the 2026 premiership

The first season with a wildcard round means 10 clubs are still in with a shot of tasting the ultimate success. We examine their strengths and weaknesses

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Martin Pegan27 Aug 2026, 03:00 pmUpdated 7h ago12 min readSportSport

Sport — Martin Pegan

AFL finals: why every team can – and can’t – win the 2026 premiership

The AFL begins a new era with 10 teams still alive as the finals start with a wildcard round for the first time. The new format has handed the top six sides an early advantage as they have a week’s break heading into their finals campaigns, while the four remaining teams must take a longer road to the grand final.

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Fremantle have already secured the club’s second men’s minor premiership and are in the driver’s seat to claim a bigger slice of history with a breakthrough flag. Two-time reigning premier Brisbane will hope to make the most of home-and-away season runners-up Sydney banning five key players for a breach of club standards, while a resurgent Carlton can keep dreaming of a fairytale ending after climbing into 10th place.

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Here is how and why each finalist can – and can’t – win the 2026 AFL premiership, as we separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Can win the premiership: The Dockers have broken new ground on the way to finishing on top of the ladder with 19 victories now their most in a home and away campaign. A pair of home finals at a venue where Fremantle have won all of their 12 matches this year by an average of 38 points can open up the path to a grand final, especially as they can call on “Wharfie Time” late in any tight tussle. The Dockers have built on the defensive solidity with their forward firepower led by Jye Amiss (58 goals), Josh Treacy (54) and Patrick Voss (41) as potent as any in the competition.

Can’t win the premiership: The Dockers stumbled into the finals after locking in a top-two spot as they lost two of their last three matches. The greatest concern might be the location of those defeats which both came on visits to Melbourne, including one at the grand final venue of the MCG. The Dockers gradual climb up the ladder has been powered in recent years by a miserly defence, but a fresh calf injury to Brennan Cox and lingering concerns over captain Alex Pearce’s fitness could leave them undermanned just as the stakes rise.

Can win the premiership: The Swans put a disappointing first season under coach Dean Cox behind them with a return to the swift ball movement that made them a force, now with more of a focus on fast and furious handball. The addition of Charlie Curnow has given Sydney a reliable forward target as the prized recruit booted 69 goals to win his third Coleman medal and gave Logan McDonald (42) time and space to return to form. Errol Gulden has put a delayed start to the season behind him to average more than 40 disposals over the past five matches and will now be a key to the Swans’ fading hopes.

Can’t win the premiership: The Swans are undermanned after they suspended five players for the rest of the season for a breach of club standards after their round 23 win in Melbourne. The absence of Isaac Heeney and Chad Warner from the midfield, and Nick Blakey in defence, will hit particularly hard even as the remaining players responded with a win over the Kangaroos. The Swans have not been truly tested for more than a month as they finished the season with five consecutive wins against non-finalists, while they have won only once in six matches against the eventual top-six sides this year.

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Can win the premiership: The Lions have the finals pedigree to leave any side shaking after winning the past two premierships and finishing as runners-up in 2023, and will begin their campaign against the embattled Swans. Brisbane’s best remains arguably the very best in the competition and their streak of 10 wins in their past 11 matches includes resounding victories over fellow finalists Collingwood, Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney. Dual Norm Smith medallist Will Ashcroft has brought his stunning finals form to the home and away season as he has averaged 31 disposals and six clearances across that stretch of games.

Can’t win the premiership: The Lions have proven they can flick a switch as the stakes rise but there are lingering concerns over their inability to stem the flow of goals when the opposition gets a run on. The two-time reigning premiers conceded 24 goals to a rampaging Carlton just a month ago and were blown away by 14-goal blitz in a third term against a hot-and-cold GWS earlier in the season. If the expectation that “defence wins premierships” still holds true, then the Lions could be in trouble after being ranked 11th – and ninth of the 10 finalists – for points against.

Can win the premiership: The Hawks have been building steadily across what is now three consecutive finals campaigns and with next to no injuries and a double chance, they are primed to take the next step to reach a grand final. They have their balance right between defence and attack as the sixth-highest scoring team this year while also being ranked fourth for points conceded. Nick Watson has booted a career-high 55 goals to become one of the most damaging forwards in the game, all while being a one-man highlight reel capable of kicking team-lifting goals or pulling down an outrageous mark of the year contender.

Can’t win the premiership: The Hawks pushed hard in their last home and away game against the Eagles, but could not quite score heavily enough in the wet to leapfrog the Lions into third place to set up a meeting with the Swans. Hawthorn won’t mind travelling to Perth to take on Fremantle but a loss would send them down a trickier path, with a potential preliminary final in Brisbane or Sydney. While the midfield continues to brush aside criticism over a lack of depth, the Hawks’ defence remains a work in progress with captain James Sicily still searching for a permanent role.

The Cats have done what they – almost – always do in reaching the finals for a 20th time in the past 23 seasons, even without regularly hitting top gear. The perennial finalists are somehow among the dark horses even after winning their last six matches including back-to-back victories against the Demons and Magpies mixed in with an otherwise soft draw. The Cats remain as dangerous as any side at punishing opposition turnovers with first-time All Australian Ollie Dempsey the master at sneaking in behind an unsettled defence.

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Can’t win the premiership: The Cats have set the standard for backing in their veterans but could be about to get a closer look at the cliff with Jeremy Cameron only just returning from injury and Patrick Dangerfield needing to be managed throughout the campaign, while gun midfielder Max Holmes is still sidelined. Shannon Neale (47 goals) and Oliver Henry (42) stepped up to cover Cameron’s absence but the attack has still found it hard to score heavily enough against the top sides. Geelong will be wary of potentially facing Carlton in an elimination final after losing the past three matches against their unlikely bogey side.

Can win the premiership: The Crows ended the home and away season with a slice of good fortune as they snatched a top-six spot when the Bulldogs stunned the Demons in the last round. After a week’s break they will now host an elimination final against the Demons, Dogs or their nemesis the Magpies, before hoping to continue their campaign on the road. Dynamic forward turned midfielder Izak Rankine has hit peak form at just the right time as he aims to make amends for his suspension late last season with an average of 37 disposals and six goals in the past three games.

Can’t win the premiership: The Crows have not won a final since losing the 2017 decider and were ingloriously knocked out in straight sets as minor premiers last year. The second-stingiest defence in the competition makes Adelaide hard to beat though their attack has slipped from its high standards last year to now be ranked seventh among the finalists. They are also still to genuinely prove themselves against the top sides after going 2-5 when facing the eventual top-six teams this season.

Can win the premiership: The Demons have shown they can match it with the best and it is only three weeks since they stormed home to stun the ladder-leading Dockers, and they have trounced the Hawks in both meetings this year. There must be some advantage in playing regularly at the venue where the grand final will be held and the Demons turned the MCG into a fortress as they won their first nine matches at the venue this year before dropping two of three on the run home. All Australian record-breaker Max Gawn remains the most dominant ruck in the game, while Kysaiah Pickett is made for the biggest of stages.

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Can’t win the premiership: The Demons paid a huge price for their last round defeat to the Bulldogs as they became the first side to finish seventh and have to navigate a wildcard final. A winner-takes-all clash with the white-hot Carlton is far from the ideal way to begin a finals campaign, though the path toward a deeper run would open up from there with a trip to Adelaide before a possible semi-final in Brisbane or Sydney. The Demons have been hit by injury at the wrong time with key defender Jake Lever and emerging forward Matt Jefferson in doubt to face the Blues and Jacob van Rooyen still has two games to serve for a suspension.

Can win the premiership: The Bulldogs have tightened up their defence with the undersized James O’Donnell leading the way and have in Bailey Dale a dashing half-back who is as good as anyone at turning defence into attack. The Dogs have shown they can reliably win a close encounter after winning seven of eight games decided by single figures this year, while the other ended in a draw with the Blues. Ed Richards has hit a rich vein of form with an average of 29 disposals and seven clearances, as well as kicking six goals, over the past five matches and his blistering speed helps break open the game.

Can’t win the premiership: The Bulldogs have corrected their long-running issues in the back half but at the same time seen their attacking prowess decline to be ranked 14th for points scored while star forward Sam Darcy has been sidelined with a serious knee injury. Aaron Naughton (46 goals) starting the finals series under a fitness cloud will not ease their concerns, especially with Jordan Croft (13) and Will Lewis (13) the next best among their key forwards. Beginning the finals series against Collingwood at the MCG, rather than at their typical home venue of Marvel Stadium, must grate too.

Can win the premiership: The Magpies rely on their intense pressure, system and structure, and contested work to wear down the opposition, though they only took flight in the second half of the year when opening up their attack. With a shift in style toward faster ball movement, Collingwood went from being one of the more dour sides in the competition to averaging 97 points across their last nine games. Nick Daicos has already been honoured with a host of individual awards this season, and has a Brownlow medal well within his sights, but he can cement his status as the best player in the game in a knockout final against the Dogs.

Can’t win the premiership: The Magpies have been forced to finally drip feed youth into their wealth of experience during the run home, though they have mostly gotten away with resting and preparing their veterans for another finals series. The sixth stingiest defence in the competition will usually keep the Pies in the game, though their ability to score enough against the top sides remains to be seen, especially after defeats to the Cats and Lions in the past month. The loss of Brayden Maynard comes at the worst possible time, with captain Darcy Moore also sidelined, in a pair of blows to Collingwood’s strength in defence.

Can win the premiership: The Blues were entrenched in 16th place after winning only one of their opening nine matches, but have since gone on one of the most remarkable runs under coach Josh Fraser to be the first major beneficiary of the wildcard round. A change in gameplan from a reliance on their contested ball to moving the ball at speed has regularly proven to be too much for even the ladder-leading Dockers to handle. The midfield has discovered a better balance around captain Patrick Cripps with young gun Jagga Smith a revelation and Sam Walsh surging back into form.

Can’t win the premiership: The Blues have lost only two and drawn one of their past 14 matches to become the form side of the competition since Fraser took the reins from Michael Voss. The biggest fear is perhaps that the bubble has to burst at some stage as the leading sides figure them out and turn their greatest strengths into a weakness. The Blues have built much of their success on moving the ball at pace and with great precision in a chip-mark game that usually gets found out in the heat of finals.